Vulnerability of British farms to post-Brexit subsidy removal, and implications for intensification, extensification and land sparing

On the 23rd June 2016, UK referendum on European Union (EU) membership resulted in a vote to leave EU. This departure, should it occur, would see implementation of new agricultural policy within which will most likely removal direct financial support farmers. In this study, we use combined survey and rural payments data evaluate extent reliance upon Pillar 1 payments, based sample 24,492 (i.e. 70%) farm holdings Wales. approach eliminates some variation found Farm Business Survey through delivery more comprehensive picture numbers types holding potentially facing economic hardship quantities land livestock associated with those holdings. We estimate ˜34% our sampled Welsh face serious difficulties show ˜44% Wales being vulnerable change or abandonment. Based results, consider potential social ecological impacts that may have also discuss balanced management could governmental visions keep farmers land, improve productivity deliver high quality ‘Public Goods’.